FLOOR COMMENT FOR: July 17, 2007
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Soy-complex ended sharply lower as speculative selling/liquidation continues in the corn and soybeans pits. Wetter forecasts with the noon maps for W. Iowa for Wednesday and Thursday seemed to be the catalysts for the strong mid-day break in prices in addition to margin related selling as the CBOT raised margins in the soy-complex. Corn futures made fresh 8-½ month lows today.
The US and EU models are in good agreement for the next 5 days - after that just fair agreement, there are some differences as to the exact placement of the ridge. The EU model has the ridge being farther west with a tough over the NE US. Both models are calling for much warmer temps following another few days of rain chances in the E. Midwest. The N.Plains and Western Midwest remains in a warmer and drier then normal pattern for the next 10 days. The forecast is about the same as Monday's, with rain totals estimated in the .25-1.50 inches from NE IA eastward with local totals near 2.00 inches. The remainder of the Midwest will remain dry. So back to the ridge - the ridge will build eastward later this week and we will see some of the warmest temps of the season from Thursday thru the middle of next week. High temps will favor the WCB and N. Plains and range from the 90's with a few lower 100's. Temps in the ECB will be upper 80's to the lower 90's. The 11-15 day forecast maintains Central US upper level ridging into early August. The noon forecast added precipitation for Western Iowa for Wednesday/Thursday.
Funds sold an estimated 10,000 soybeans, 5,000 soymeal and 1,500 soyoil. Funds are estimated to be long 104,000 soybeans, long 51,000 soymeal and long 58,000 soyoil.
CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE PRICES
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE NET CHANGE
BOQ 3718 3748 3660 3692 dn 31
BOU 3748 3773 3791 3723 dn 25
BOV 3788 3795 3723 3746 dn 29
BOZ 3815 3855 3808 3820 dn 81
Regards,
Sigmund at the Chicago Board of Trade trading floor!
Tel: 1-415-771-6388 in USA
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Posted at 04:13PM Jul 17, 2007 by MarketReports admin in Asia Closing |